Climate response variable: - sfcWind,
tas, pr: original scale daily,
reduced scale: hourly - clt, rsds:
original scale monthly, reduced scale: daily
Training: - Response: ERA5 in reduced scale - Data perdiod: 1980
- 2015.
- Predictors: from CMIP6 (daily or monthly) - Predictors variables:
sfcWind, tas, pr,
tasmax, tasmin and psl in daily
scale, clt, rsdt,rsds in monthly
scale, the month and the daily daylight amount in seconds.
Validation:
| Metric | naive | cnn | xgboost | lstm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| diff_of_means | 2.27 | 3.70 | 4.58 | 10.94 |
| ratio_of_sd | 0.92 | 0.91 | 0.91 | 0.82 |
| monthly_amplitude_ratio_of_means | 0.91 | 0.90 | 0.88 | 0.72 |
| ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes | 0.33 | 0.22 | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| qqplot_mae | 8.15 | 10.15 | 11.01 | 24.86 |
| acf_mae | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.08 |
| extremogram_mae | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).
Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.
Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)
In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.
| Metric | naive | cnn | xgboost | lstm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| diff_of_means | 3.38 | 4.54 | 5.80 | 11.33 |
| ratio_of_sd | 0.91 | 0.89 | 0.89 | 0.78 |
| monthly_amplitude_ratio_of_means | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.86 | 0.68 |
| ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.24 | 0.43 |
| qqplot_mae | 8.56 | 11.55 | 13.07 | 26.77 |
| acf_mae | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| extremogram_mae | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.05 |
Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).
Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.
Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)
In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.
| Metric | naive | cnn | xgboost | lstm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| diff_of_means | 2.47 | 4.05 | 5.03 | 10.65 |
| ratio_of_sd | 0.92 | 0.89 | 0.89 | 0.80 |
| monthly_amplitude_ratio_of_means | 0.95 | 0.89 | 0.86 | 0.71 |
| ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes | 0.44 | 0.29 | 0.19 | 0.49 |
| qqplot_mae | 7.38 | 11.01 | 11.85 | 24.99 |
| acf_mae | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| extremogram_mae | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).
Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.
Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)
In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.
| Metric | naive | cnn | xgboost | lstm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| diff_of_means | 7.28 | 10.02 | 12.41 | 18.96 |
| ratio_of_sd | 0.87 | 0.84 | 0.88 | 0.70 |
| monthly_amplitude_ratio_of_means | 0.89 | 0.81 | 0.86 | 0.64 |
| ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes | 0.22 | 0.18 | 0.19 | 0.42 |
| qqplot_mae | 14.90 | 20.84 | 24.71 | 39.67 |
| acf_mae | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| extremogram_mae | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.06 |
Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).
Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.
Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)
In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.
| Metric | xgboost | naive | lstm | cnn |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| diff_of_means | −4.18 | −7.08 | 10.78 | −12.16 |
| ratio_of_sd | 0.96 | 0.99 | 0.90 | 1.04 |
| monthly_amplitude_ratio_of_means | 0.84 | 0.87 | 0.61 | 0.82 |
| ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes | 0.23 | 0.28 | 0.52 | 0.46 |
| qqplot_mae | 9.39 | 14.92 | 23.98 | 24.21 |
| acf_mae | 0.09 | 0.13 | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| extremogram_mae | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.04 |
Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).
Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.
Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)
In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.
| Metric | xgboost | naive | cnn | lstm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| diff_of_means | −1.05 | −4.53 | −10.40 | 13.85 |
| ratio_of_sd | 0.96 | 1.00 | 1.03 | 0.87 |
| monthly_amplitude_ratio_of_means | 0.88 | 0.92 | 0.86 | 0.61 |
| ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes | 0.26 | 0.28 | 0.49 | 0.55 |
| qqplot_mae | 5.20 | 10.36 | 20.70 | 29.29 |
| acf_mae | 0.06 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| extremogram_mae | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).
Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.
Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)
In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.
| Metric | xgboost | naive | cnn | lstm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| diff_of_means | −2.87 | −5.80 | −11.29 | 11.56 |
| ratio_of_sd | 0.96 | 1.00 | 1.03 | 0.88 |
| monthly_amplitude_ratio_of_means | 0.87 | 0.90 | 0.87 | 0.62 |
| ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes | 0.25 | 0.43 | 0.64 | 0.77 |
| qqplot_mae | 6.72 | 12.61 | 22.47 | 25.55 |
| acf_mae | 0.07 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| extremogram_mae | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.07 |
Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).
Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.
Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)
In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.